Proxy or Player? The Houthis' Next Move.
As tensions flare in the Middle East, we sat down with independent Yemen expert Hannah Porter to discuss how the Houthis might respond to growing escalation between the US, Israel, and Iran.
1. How are the Houthis responding to recent strikes on Iran by the US and Israel?
Houthi leaders and the group’s media have been vocally supportive of Iran and condemn US and Israeli military action against the country. Now, the Houthis are praising what they consider to be Iran’s victory in the 12-day war. The Houthis frame the US decision to not respond to Iran’s attacks on Al-Udeid airbase in Qatar as evidence that the US has been beaten back and then pushed to call for a ceasefire.
Al-Masirah, the main Houthi media outlet, claimed that, “In contrast [to the US], Iran wasn't begging for a solution. [Iranian] rockets pounded enemy settlements until the early hours of Tuesday morning…This meant that the Islamic Republic was at the peak of its power and escalation and was prepared for prolonged confrontation to counter the Zionist-American aggression.” This face-saving narrative is also being pushed in Tehran.
The Houthi leader, Abdulmalek Al-Houthi delivers frequent direct addresses on television.
A 19 June speech by the group’s leader, Abdulmalek Al-Houthi, included dozens of references to Iran and condemnations of Israeli and US strikes. The Houthi leader also defended Iran’s position regarding nuclear energy, saying: “major Western countries like America, France, Britain, and others like China, Russia, India, and the Israeli enemy, all possess and produce nuclear weapons. In contrast, the Islamic Republic confirms time and time again that it absolutely does not want to produce nuclear weapons…”
“Major Western countries like America, France, Britain, and others like China, Russia, India, and the Israeli enemy, all possess and produce nuclear weapons. In contrast, the Islamic Republic confirms time and time again that it absolutely does not want to produce nuclear weapons…” - Houthi Leader Abdulmalek Al-Houthi.
In terms of rhetoric, it’s clear that the Houthis are following Iran’s narrative on this latest conflict. In terms of military action, it remains to be seen the type of response we should expect from the Houthis.
2. Should we expect to see the Houthis retaliate on Iran’s behalf? If so, what form would this retaliation take?
The group has threatened to resume attacks against US ships in the Red Sea following a ceasefire that was reached last month. The Houthis claim that they have already coordinated with Iran on their retaliatory attacks on Israel.
“It is important to note that Houthi drone and missile attacks on Israel predate Iran’s recent direct targeting of Israel.”
Prior to the strikes on Iran, the Houthis framed their attacks on Israel as a defence of Palestinians. Now, they are framing them as a defence of Palestinians and Iranians. So, one important question is, will the Houthis continue their targeting of Israel even if Iran abides by the current ceasefire? I expect that the Houthis would like a break from Israeli attacks on their infrastructure, so we may see a pause or at least a decrease in the frequency of Houthi targeting of Israel.
Donald Trump addresses troops in Qatar, May 2025
Houthi leaders have called on Arab nations to “eliminate the presence of US military bases” in the region, and to ensure that they are not facilitating US-Israeli aggression on Iran. The Houthis have been especially critical of Saudi Arabia and Qatar, but predictably praising of Oman’s role, since the Houthis and Iran have important relationships with the Sultanate.
Throughout this regional conflict, there have been concerns that the Houthis may resume attacks on Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia, as a means of exerting pressure on Riyadh and on the US. However, it is hard to see what the Houthis have to gain from targeting Saudi Arabia at the moment, and the Saudis are likewise reluctant to provoke the Houthis into an attack due to their clear desire to not re-enter a war in Yemen.
3. To address a question that has been debated for at least a decade, are the Houthis an Iranian proxy? Specifically, do they, or could they, operate without the financial and military support provided by Iran?
For Iran, one of the key benefits of their sponsorship of the Houthis–aside from it being a low-cost, high-return investment–is that the Iranians often don’t need to give direct orders to the group. Instead, the Houthis make decisions that naturally align with Iran’s regional interests, such as targeting Israeli or US interests, or acting as a thorn in the side of Saudi Arabia. Now, we might be beginning to see a shift in perceptions, where the Houthis are realising the costs and risks that come with being so closely tied to the Islamic Republic.
“Although the label “Iranian proxy” has never been especially helpful for understanding the Houthis’ identity or goals, it is undeniable that the group has grown increasingly dependent on Iran for military and financial support. Diversifying their regional alliances and sources of revenue and weapons must be something that the more pragmatic members of the Houthi Political Bureau are considering at this moment. However, putting that into practice may prove impossible.”
Publicly, the Houthis like to present themselves as a sovereign actor that is supportive of Iran not out of obligation but out of principle. Privately, I suspect the Houthis are alarmed at the state of the so-called Axis of Resistance and are seeking ways to avoid the fate of Hezbollah, Hamas, and maybe the Iranian regime itself.
The Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar is described by experts as "a critical cornerstone of military operations".
4. What is happening domestically in Yemen these days? How do Yemenis feel about the Houthis?
There was a great deal of international attention paid to Yemen at the beginning of the year, in large part due to the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. That attention has diminished, but this doesn’t mean the situation in Yemen has stabilised. In the north, the Houthis continue to suppress opposition voices and threaten INGO workers. Targeting by Israel and the US increased the group’s fears of foreign infiltration and espionage, and the Houthis have become especially paranoid about every form of information sharing.
In the south, the Republic of Yemen Government (ROYG) is failing to provide stability, security, or basic services. Internal divisions in the Presidential Leadership Council have deepened and there is little prospect of a unified vision of Yemen’s future, let alone a formidable opposition to the Houthis.
Research conducted by ARK earlier this year indicates that Yemenis living under ROYG control are deeply dissatisfied with their local officials, moreso than Yemenis living in the Houthi-controlled north. Only 11% of respondents in ROYG areas said they completely believe statements from their government officials, compared to more than a quarter of respondents in Houthi areas reporting the same. Strikingly, 31% of respondents in Houthi-held Al-Hodeida reported that they completely believe statements from local officials, compared to only 4% of Adenis (ROYG).
With the war entering its eleventh year, countless Yemenis are still waiting for a chance to rebuild their lives. Photo: IOM/Majed Mohammed
In the same survey, respondents were asked if they generally felt that things in Yemen were “headed in the right direction.” The responses pointed to relative optimism in Houthi-held areas, and pessimism in ROYG-held areas. Twenty-eight percent of respondents in Houthi areas said that things in Yemen were headed in the right direction, compared to only 8% saying the same in ROYG-held areas. When asked about perceptions of safety in their communities, 81% of respondents in Houthi-held areas said they “strongly” or “somewhat” agreed that they felt safe, compared to 71% in ROYG areas.
“Altogether, this paints a picture of nationwide instability and challenges to come.”
The authoritarian Houthis have a firm grip on power in the north and, despite the undeniable crimes committed against their population, are still perceived by many as governing more effectively than the internationally recognised ROYG. The prospect of peace is distant, but governments around the globe must continue to invest in Yemen’s development and stability, as the ongoing crises are unlikely to resolve themselves.
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